Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election creates the conditions for change, but it is not change yet, contrary to what the media and populists believe. Far from being a “revolution”, the Trump’s advent at the head of the Western system corresponds to a radicalisation of the ex-ante situation. ...

For many years now, our European Laboratory of Political Anticipation has been using a method invented by Franck Biancheri: the Political Anticipation Method. The GEAB, our monthly Bulletin is the best example of how this method can be used. This method has been described and explained by our president Marie-Hélène ...

PUBLIC COMMUNIQUE of our monthly bulletin GEAB March, 2017. Subscribe here ! Without Kissinger to negotiate the petrodollar and put the US currency back to the centre of the global game after the shock of Nixon’s announcement in 1971 to halt the convertibility of the dollar to gold, the greenback would never have been ...

On Januray 8th in Berlin, Marie-Hélène Caillol our President, took part in a small meeting which resulted in the launching of a new initiative: ICAN, where CAN stands for Change Agent Network. “Most Citizens of Europe do not want the EU to carry on with “business as usual” as its ...

The world has been seeking a substitute for its reliance on the dollar since 2008. The dependency has been so strong, that it has taken almost a decade for a solution to be drafted. Strangely, this solution came from an institution perceived by some as obsolete, until China took the ...

PUBLIC COMMUNIQUE of our monthly bulletin GEAB February, 2017. Subscribe here ! Within the global systemic crisis that we are now experiencing, our experts have been talking for some years about “statistical fog” to qualify the inability of today’s tools to measure real economy, or even the way to manipulate them in order to ...

As an important player on the African continent and its representative in the BRICS South Africa plays a significant role on the international arena. From another side, colonial and apartheid past created a huge number of obstacles on the way of modernization of politico-administrative regime and creation of national competitive ...

Many Europeans have never understood Nigel Farage. His objective was never just Brexit. His real ambition is the collapse of the European Union. Enter (soon to be) President Trump. He celebrated Brexit as “a great thing”. He has also repeatedly said he will “Appoint tough and smart trade negotiators to fight on behalf ...

This is an article from MAP (Magaine d’anticipation politique) written by Mihai Nadin in March 2012 – MAP is a four-monthly publication by LEAP. People took to the streets. Some heavy players in the digital economy flexed their muscle. The press covered the event. Even the United Nations directed its ...

PUBLIC COMMUNIQUE of our monthly bulletin GEAB January, 2017. Subscribe here ! Every year, LEAP/E2020 is offering you a short overview of the up and down[1] trends of the year which is starting. In addition to the intellectual interest of this contribution of LEAP/E2020, which of course reflects many of our researchers’ analyses over the ...

Both in the United States and around the world, this news has been making some noise: since October the 1st, the internet is finally “free from US tutelage.” Is it, indeed? It is true that a decisive step has just been reached, since the ICANN (Internet Corporation for Assigned Names ...

LEAP is proud to share with you the interview of Marie-Hélène Caillol (President of LEAP and AAFB), conducted by Rafael Poch, correspondent in Paris for the Spanish newspaper LA VANGUARDIA. This article is also available in Spanish here! Is this multicrisis EU fixable, or does it have to be demolished in order to be ...

This article was published by our team in October 2015, in a very specific context: the Russian crisis was not solved yet, Syrian trap, Erdogan having political difficulties etc. We can verify today the precision of this anticipation, and more precisely of the possibility of a “coup d’etat”. The other ...

The following is an open letter from Franck Biancheri, Director of studies of LEAP to the G20. Ladies and Gentlemen, Your next summit takes place in a few days in London; but are you aware that you have less than a semester to prevent the world from plunging into a ...

PUBLIC COMMUNIQUE of our monthly bulletin GEAB December, 2016. Subscribe here ! Since November 8, 2016, India has created a monetary revolution of a magnitude never seen, both by the size of the population concerned and the depth of the transformation induced. By demonetising the biggest notes of 500 and 1000 Rs (rupees), the ...

[…] We have portrayed here a quite bleak picture of these beautiful regions of Central and Eastern Europe which unquestionably deserve better than to finish torn apart in the Euro-Russian discord. Our team is convinced that better relations between these two great neighbours, based on the recognition of shared responsibilities ...

It could be said that we’re all accomplices of the so-called “post-truth”, although not to the same extent. But, what is the post-truth? The post-truth refers to circumstances in which emotions and personal beliefs are more determining when shaping public opinion than objective facts. The post-truth is used in the ...

The recent episode of Brexit emphatically highlighted many weaknesses and shortcomings which demonstrate that neither economics nor politics is an exact science – starting with the economic commentators, who, in their vast majority, asserted that the Brexit will not happen, supported in this belief by polls, which also, overwhelmingly, presaged ...

PUBLIC COMMUNIQUE of our monthly bulletin GEAB November, 2016. Subscribe here ! Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election creates the conditions for change, but it is not change yet, contrary to what the media and populists believe. Far from being a “revolution”, the Trump’s advent at the head of the Western system ...

The LEAP laboratory conducted an interview with the writer Bruno Marion about his latest book, « Chaos, a User’s Guide ». In what context have you written this book? Humanity is currently experiencing an absolutely incredible transition because of its size and speed. It is high time we design tools to help ...

European Defense: a Challenge for European Democracy – No European army without European Democracy – Lets start with some fundamental thoughts and then go into European politics. An army is a democratic anachronism for two reasons: . can a state based upon democratic values send its sons and nowadays even ...

Some rising powers, including the BRICS states (Brazil, Russia, India, China,and South Africa), have openly contested certain international security norms, for instance challenging the tendency to invoke humanitarian protection to carry out military intervention. However, the relevance of rising powers, and especially coalitions of such states, to specific conflicts remains ...

By Maiara Folly, member of our Euro-BRICS Young Leaders project for the Diplomatist. In 2009, when Yekaterinburg hosted the inaugural Head of State Summit of the BRIC coalition, the world was facing its most critical financial crisis since the Great Depression of the early 1930s. Despite the turbulent international context, the ...

PUBLIC COMMUNIQUE of our monthly bulletin GEAB October, 2016. Subscribe here ! The United States has been voluntarily isolating itself from the rest of the world, and not just from a geopolitical point of view. This terrible isolation can only get worse, whatever the result of the presidential election: if Trump wins, it will ...

During the past weeks, we have seen an increase in tensions between Russia and the West. On the western side there have been some accusation attempts on Russia claiming that they have committed crimes against humanity; and on the Russian side some accusations have been made against the western alliance ...

This month we analyze the impact of the US presidential campaign on the way the American economic and financial situations are perceived. We all know that reality is a matter of perception. Our readers have probably noticed that recently we have spoken less frequently of the US economy in our ...

PUBLIC COMMUNIQUE of our monthly bulletin GEAB September, 2016. Subscribe here ! Since its creation, the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin has been designed among other things to inform European public opinion and decision makers about the fact that the global geopolitical reconfiguration vitally requires a profound change of the EU. The ...

After Iran and Turkey, a few weeks ago Saudi Arabia presented its “Visions for the future”, and our team considers it important to integrate the strategic developmental plans of the three major Middle East players in its anticipation work. What seems of particular interest to our team is: ₋ on ...

We are risking a bold anticipation here, but at least does it provide an interesting angle on the EU’s most important issue since 2014: the dramatically decaying relationship with its closest and most powerful neighbour, Russia. Moreover, as mentioned in our Manual of Political Anticipation[1], the anticipatory exercise consists of ...

Marie-Hélène Caillol, President of LEAP and some members of our Euro-BRICS Youth Platform are in Shangai for the Youth Innovation Competition on Global Governance (YICGG) in Shangai! It is hosted by the University of Fudan. Our President has been invited as member of the jury! YICGG2016 aims at gathering information about outstanding youths from all ...