PUBLIC COMMUNIQUE of our monthly bulletin GEAB December, 2016. Subscribe here ! Since November 8, 2016, India has created a monetary revolution of a magnitude never seen, both by the size of the population concerned and the depth of the transformation induced. By demonetising the biggest notes of 500 and 1000 Rs (rupees), the ...

[…] We have portrayed here a quite bleak picture of these beautiful regions of Central and Eastern Europe which unquestionably deserve better than to finish torn apart in the Euro-Russian discord. Our team is convinced that better relations between these two great neighbours, based on the recognition of shared responsibilities ...

It could be said that we’re all accomplices of the so-called “post-truth”, although not to the same extent. But, what is the post-truth? The post-truth refers to circumstances in which emotions and personal beliefs are more determining when shaping public opinion than objective facts. The post-truth is used in the ...

The recent episode of Brexit emphatically highlighted many weaknesses and shortcomings which demonstrate that neither economics nor politics is an exact science – starting with the economic commentators, who, in their vast majority, asserted that the Brexit will not happen, supported in this belief by polls, which also, overwhelmingly, presaged ...

PUBLIC COMMUNIQUE of our monthly bulletin GEAB November, 2016. Subscribe here ! Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election creates the conditions for change, but it is not change yet, contrary to what the media and populists believe. Far from being a “revolution”, the Trump’s advent at the head of the Western system ...

The LEAP laboratory conducted an interview with the writer Bruno Marion about his latest book, « Chaos, a User’s Guide ». In what context have you written this book? Humanity is currently experiencing an absolutely incredible transition because of its size and speed. It is high time we design tools to help ...

European Defense: a Challenge for European Democracy – No European army without European Democracy – Lets start with some fundamental thoughts and then go into European politics. An army is a democratic anachronism for two reasons: . can a state based upon democratic values send its sons and nowadays even ...

Some rising powers, including the BRICS states (Brazil, Russia, India, China,and South Africa), have openly contested certain international security norms, for instance challenging the tendency to invoke humanitarian protection to carry out military intervention. However, the relevance of rising powers, and especially coalitions of such states, to specific conflicts remains ...

By Maiara Folly, member of our Euro-BRICS Young Leaders project for the Diplomatist. In 2009, when Yekaterinburg hosted the inaugural Head of State Summit of the BRIC coalition, the world was facing its most critical financial crisis since the Great Depression of the early 1930s. Despite the turbulent international context, the ...

PUBLIC COMMUNIQUE of our monthly bulletin GEAB October, 2016. Subscribe here ! The United States has been voluntarily isolating itself from the rest of the world, and not just from a geopolitical point of view. This terrible isolation can only get worse, whatever the result of the presidential election: if Trump wins, it will ...

During the past weeks, we have seen an increase in tensions between Russia and the West. On the western side there have been some accusation attempts on Russia claiming that they have committed crimes against humanity; and on the Russian side some accusations have been made against the western alliance ...

This month we analyze the impact of the US presidential campaign on the way the American economic and financial situations are perceived. We all know that reality is a matter of perception. Our readers have probably noticed that recently we have spoken less frequently of the US economy in our ...

PUBLIC COMMUNIQUE of our monthly bulletin GEAB September, 2016. Subscribe here ! Since its creation, the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin has been designed among other things to inform European public opinion and decision makers about the fact that the global geopolitical reconfiguration vitally requires a profound change of the EU. The ...

After Iran and Turkey, a few weeks ago Saudi Arabia presented its “Visions for the future”, and our team considers it important to integrate the strategic developmental plans of the three major Middle East players in its anticipation work. What seems of particular interest to our team is: ₋ on ...

We are risking a bold anticipation here, but at least does it provide an interesting angle on the EU’s most important issue since 2014: the dramatically decaying relationship with its closest and most powerful neighbour, Russia. Moreover, as mentioned in our Manual of Political Anticipation[1], the anticipatory exercise consists of ...

Marie-Hélène Caillol, President of LEAP and some members of our Euro-BRICS Youth Platform are in Shangai for the Youth Innovation Competition on Global Governance (YICGG) in Shangai! It is hosted by the University of Fudan. Our President has been invited as member of the jury! YICGG2016 aims at gathering information about outstanding youths from all ...

Since the late 1990s, China’s world expansion has been accelerating, and also extending beyond the geographical borders of Siberia and of the so called Russian Far East. If the western world perceives this Chinese progress in the light of its own standards as a process of “colonization” (an illegal action ...

Countering the British nationalist takeover with a European democratic blow Towards a first real trans-European election – An open Letter to the European Leaders – July 20, 2016 Dear European leaders, “We have all got it right, Brexit will ultimately not result in Great Britain leaving the EU. Nevertheless, Brexit ...

In the framework of LEAP’s Euro-BRICS project, its partner, the BRICS Center of Fudan University has invited Marie-Hélène Caillol as well as a dozen Euro-BRICS Youth Platform members to their 2016 edition of the “Youth Innovation Competition on Global Governance” (Shanghai, 25-29 July 2016). This event accounts among the preparatory events of Y20 (Youth ...

Last year at the height of the Greek crisis, the Eurozone proved to be a solid anchor at the core of the European construction. The Greek crisis indeed revealed how closely Euro-member countries’ destinies are tied together. Since 1996, LEAP and its predecessors have been advocating that the Eurozone provides fertile ground ...

The political anticipation method applied by the GEAB reveals that long-term trends are strong undercurrents on which short-term trends usually evolve. So, when our team commits to primarily anticipate phases of the crisis on the horizon in several years, it takes into serious consideration these structural macro-trends. For example, the ...

LEAP is now a member of WFSF (World Future Studies Federation)! WFSF is a UNESCO and UN consultative partner and global NGO with members in over 60 countries; bringing together academics, researchers, practitioners, students and futures-focused institutions. WFSF offers a forum for stimulation, exploration and exchange of ideas, visions, and plans ...

The GEAB, LEAP’s confidential letter is a monthly bulletin available under subscription. Its contents are not made available to the public until three months later. We offer you the access to this exclusive article from March’s bulletin (GEAB n°103). If you want to read our articles in real time, subscribe to the GEAB! ...

We strongly encourage you to read this IDS Policy Briefing written by Richard Carey and Xiaoyun Li. Richard Carey is former Director of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD) Development Co-operation Directorate (DAC-DCD) and chair of the International Advisory Committee of the China International Development Research Network (CIDRN). We were ...

We are happy to share with you an article written by our network of Experts during one of our online meetings on Political Anticipation: how to improve the timing in Political Anticipation? (PDF here: How to improve the timing in political anticipation) The method to give a timing in political anticipation ...

In 2014, our team anticipated the disintegration of the Eastern European flank following the conflict between the EU and Russia. Two years later, the damage has become visible.  If Europe and Russia fail to renew any dialogue, the worst is yet to come in this part of Europe, a region ...

In the framework of the launching of India’s BRICS presidency and on the occasion of the Euro-BRICS Week in Paris… The Embassy of India in Paris, LEAP and the Euro-BRICS Youth Platform organised a public conference last April 30, topic: Instrumentality of the Euro-BRICS bridging in addressing the challenges of ...

The systemic crisis is spreading much faster in the real economy than in 2008-2009. This low dormancy is a sign that the economic protection dikes are severely lowered, the synergies are broken and the common strategies of global resilience have vanished. Within this statistical fog, not even fully lifted yet, ...

We wish to quickly return to one of our “ups and downs” of last month, the one related to Belgium, which, due to the “short note” format in which it was drawn up, was formulated too bluntly to allow people to really understand its core analysis. Our team has long ...

In the framework of the launching of India’s BRICS presidency and on the occasion of the Euro-BRICS Week in Paris… The Embassy of India in Paris, LEAP and the Euro-BRICS Youth Platform organised a public conference last April 30, topic: Instrumentality of the Euro-BRICS bridging in addressing the challenges of the multipolar world If you were not able to ...