Following on from the last GEAB by LEAP issue, which anticipated the reinforcement of a new type of transatlantic relationship (based on a ‘New NAFTA’ between the US, Mexico and Canada, something which did not take long to confirm), in this October issue we anticipate an acceleration of the world-transforming process, catalysed by the current China-US polarisation.
The risk of cold war has long been predicted as a likely development following the failure to construct a multipolar world. This is a process that has been at work since the Euro-Russian crisis of 2014, which triggered a domino effect of nations needing to take sides. However, in the present context of political tensions, we believe the fruit of this long trend is about to show itself: warnings of a new financial crisis, skirmishes in the South China Sea, a trade war and political hardening at national level.
We outline a map of this new world; the front lines, the risks, whether economic-financial or of war, as well as the attempts by the relevant players to get out of this divisive trap – their responses being formed with a weather eye on the ASEAN at the end of the year. With this significant phase of global transformation in mind, we shall look at the calendar for the next 4 months, which provides elements of the landscape in which this acceleration of world transformation will unfold.
We also anticipate difficulties for the new-tech multinationals, resulting from a takeover of the global agenda by major national players. Finally, as articles have continued to blossom over the 10 years of the crisis, we shall go back to the famous GEAB analyses of January 2006 – September 2008 (the fall of Lehman Brothers) in which we anticipated, in detail, the arrival of the crisis, together with the gigantic process of systemic global transition that has resulted – a transition, the successive phases of which we have continued to successfully anticipate ever since.
Main titles of our bulletin GEAB 128 (16th October 2018):
The World at the end of 2018 – Amidst bipolar disorder and therapeutic reaction
Calendar of forthcoming events: October 2018 – February 2019
2019: High tech GAFA companies ready for boarding!
Oil: From paper to smoke
2006-2008: The main axes of anticipation made by GEAB
Investments, trends and recommendations.