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GEAB N°32 (February 16, 2009) – Contents

{{4th quarter 2009 – Beginning of Phase 5 of the global systemic crisis: phase of global geopolitical dislocation}}

Back in February 2006, LEAP/E2020 estimated that the global systemic crisis would unfold in 4 main structural phases: trigger, acceleration, impact and decanting phases. This process enabled us to properly anticipate events until now. However our team has now come to the conclusion that, due to the global leaders’ incapacity to fully realise the scope of the ongoing crisis (made obvious by their determination to cure the consequences rather than the causes of this crisis), the global systemic crisis will enter a fifth phase in the fourth quarter of 2009, a phase of global geopolitical dislocation… (page 2)

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{{Two major processes at the centre of the phase of global geopolitical dislocation}}

On the one hand, the base on which this global order has been founded for at least thirty years is disappearing, a base made up of a mixture of US Dollars and of American, British and more generally Western debts. On the other hand, the interests of the main players in the global system have begun diverging at an increasing pace, whatever the G7, G20 and other international organizations may publish in their press releases… (page 6)

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{{Two parallel sequences in the phase of global geopolitical dislocation}}

These two parallel (but not necessarily synchronized) sequences involve, on the one hand, a sequence of quick disintegration of the present international system altogether, resulting from the growing incapacity of the main international organisations and markets to keep on playing their role efficiently; and, on the other hand, a sequence of strategic dislocation directly affecting the big global players such as the United States, China, Russia and the EU. For some of these players, this sequence will undermine their territorial integrity and their socio-economic fabric, as well as the very structure of their political power and their influence on the world… (page 11)

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{{Recommendations: Preparing for the phase of geopolitical dislocation}}

As we have previously forecast in this 32nd issue of the GEAB, the fifth phase of the global systemic crisis will affect countries and regions within one political entity differently. However, it is possible to make a number of general recommendations to avoid being trapped in the process of geopolitical dislocation. To this end, it is important to assess three major factors determining the gravity of the social, political and economic dislocation in your country or region… (page 19)

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{{The GlobalEurometre – Results & Analyses }}

The Europeans are harsh on the G20: 85 percent estimate that the next G20 summit in London will not bring any solution to the crisis… (page 21)

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