GEAB N°22 (February 16, 2008) – Contents

{{Global systemic crisis / September 2008 – Phase of collapse of US real economy }}

The end of the third quarter of 2008 will be marked by a new tipping point in the unfolding of the global systemic crisis. In the United States, this new tipping point will translate into a collapse of the real economy, final socio-economic stage of the serial bursting of the housing and financial bubbles and of the pursuance of the US dollar fall…. (page 2)

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{{The four main factors at work in the collapse of US real economy }}

In the coming months, four main factors combine and provoke the collapse if US real economy. LEAP/E2020 describes them below:

US companies: The two effects of the financial crisis

US consumers: Consuming times are over, saving is back

US municipalities: Shutdown of public services

US Dollar: Towards the Dollar-Carry Trade (page 6)

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{{Five strategic and operational recommendations to be protected from the aggravation of the crisis }}

Stocks or bonds?

The recognition of a new « American risk

The new safe heaven currencies

Real estate: Selling, keeping or buying ?

Risking less for losing less (page 15)

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{{France on its way to a regime crisis by Fall 2008 }}

The domestic political situation in France is deteriorating very rapidly, on both the political front and in terms of economic and financial matters. According to LEAP/E2020, this situation is prone to result in a very severe political crisis, a regime crisis, that will question the very bases of the French political and institutional system’s mechanisms, and that will generate a significant social unrest… (page 17)

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{{Le GlobalEurometre – Results & Analyses}}

With 100 percent of the respondents convinced that the US dollar’s fall is ineluctable, the European opinion on the evolution of the US currency has become radical: they are now sure that the US currency is on its way for a long-lasting fall. This opinion is not only about the EURUSD exchange rate, but about the value of the US currency compared to all the main international currencies… (page 21)

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